Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-29 10.729946 12.575014 14.591268 16.951486 19.631551 22.573050 26.038387
2025-01-05 7.791216 10.280086 13.274702 17.111487 21.861723 27.512674 34.702650
2025-01-12 5.880123 8.606453 12.169922 17.093775 23.634446 31.928972 43.131896
2025-01-19 4.614943 7.407993 11.333394 17.119569 25.271928 36.166378 51.605336
2025-01-26 4.058229 7.040135 11.490851 18.405305 28.615909 42.833421 63.744565
2025-02-02 3.518953 6.566901 11.377687 19.218814 31.297078 48.739007 75.241345
2025-02-09 3.079774 6.153845 11.263384 19.963377 33.882216 54.641794 87.099071
2025-02-16 2.589849 5.548318 10.728770 19.940458 35.235129 58.771154 96.591020
2025-02-23 2.115311 4.868201 9.950713 19.389007 35.644688 61.434734 103.988902
2025-03-02 1.704016 4.218768 9.115824 18.609635 35.557972 63.253310 110.127635
2025-03-09 1.450535 3.836969 8.711350 18.527132 36.606919 66.914499 119.338684
2025-03-16 1.214238 3.438577 8.208114 18.186400 37.145274 69.734232 127.315587
2025-03-23 1.113418 3.340836 8.315700 19.057920 39.994758 76.725746 142.749548
2025-03-30 0.978728 3.130526 8.155483 19.382946 41.869980 82.184674 155.974903
2025-04-06 0.842433 2.881932 7.870395 19.414174 43.183920 86.739307 167.921152
2025-04-13 0.727642 2.661225 7.610654 19.460439 44.517764 91.397925 180.291115
2025-04-20 0.704832 2.701324 7.975479 20.900980 48.732129 101.539747 202.836822
2025-04-27 0.654839 2.646585 8.098024 21.810099 51.931996 109.977915 222.742612
2025-05-04 0.605572 2.581497 8.183607 22.640454 55.026357 118.381740 242.979664
2025-05-11 0.526237 2.393694 7.917721 22.615199 56.311264 123.406242 257.265023
2025-05-18 0.437084 2.141890 7.433073 22.000904 56.268837 125.845835 266.856306
2025-05-25 0.354422 1.882920 6.876961 21.132151 55.577128 126.942423 273.942346
2025-06-01 0.306233 1.742099 6.639125 21.040161 56.610006 131.526426 287.876857